22bet App Official 22bet App Download Link For Ios And Android

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Jak zakończy się wojna na Ukrainie? 5 możliwych scenariuszy

Teorii końca wojen (ang. war-termination theory). Bardziej prawdopodobnym punktem końcowym nie jest wynegocjowany pokój, ale raczej konflikt, który konsoliduje się wokół perspektywy na czwarty kwartał 2018 linii kontroli. – Skończy się na czymś pomiędzy zamrożonym konfliktem a wieczną wojną, w której żadna ze stron nie ma sił ani gospodarki, by wygrać – powiedział Nixey.

  • Ta strona do poprawnego działania wymaga włączenia mechanizmu “ciasteczek” w przeglądarce.
  • – Pomścimy ten czarny dzień – zapowiedział premier Beniamin Netanjahu już w sobotę.
  • Na łamach niemieckiego dziennika „Tagesspiegel” były szef CIA David Petraeus przewidywał, jak może zakończyć się rosyjska inwazja.
  • Wojczal przez lata analizował geopolityczne położenie Ukrainy i plany Władimira Putina.
  • Kluczową przewagą najeźdźcy jest liczba dostępnych wojsk – około 300 tysięcy, z których prawie wszystkie są już zaangażowane na Ukrainie.

Ofensywa, która w ocenie Kremla, miała potrwać kilka dni, przerodziła się w długotrwały konflikt. Jednocześnie były prezydent wskazuje powód, dla którego Prawo i Sprawiedliwość tak mocno zmieniło kurs na relacje polsko-ukraińskie. Kwaśniewski ma przede wszystkim duże pretensje do rządzących o ostatnie ochłodzenie stosunków na linii Kijów – Warszawa.

Wojna w Ukrainie w 2023 r. Przewiduje Barbara Zanchetta

Przypomniał, że zmobilizowani rosyjscy rekruci oraz siły uwolnione sopd Chersonia pozwolą Putinowi na przypuszczenie nowej ofensywy. Kontynuowana będzie też okupacja Ługańska i Doniecka. Jego zdaniem Ukraińcy będą kontynuować powolne przebijanie się na wąskich kierunkach.

  • Bez wątpienia będzie to jeden z trzech wymienionych scenariuszy.
  • Opowieści— niejednokrotnie niestety prawdziwe— o ukraińskiej korupcji robią furorę w konserwatywnych mediach.
  • Wszystko to w zaledwie kilka tygodni, i to w czasie, gdy tak niegdyś wyczekiwana ukraińska ofensywa też nie przynosi przełomu.
  • Odsetek osób całkowicie zgadzających się na finansowanie zakupu i dostawy sprzętu wojskowego do Ukrainy spadł o 17 proc.

Służba Bezpieczeństwa Ukrainy jednoznacznie oceniła te doniesienia jako prowokację. Według gościa programu Wirtualnej Polski, Mołdawia to kolejny kraj po Ukrainie, który nie może spokojnie patrzeć w przyszłość. Na potwierdzenie swojej tezy wskazuje na dwa ważne szczegóły. W ocenie Wojczala Moskwa zdaje sobie sprawę, że nie jest w stanie prowadzić wojny z NATO. Z tego powodu Putin zaatakował Ukrainę, co do której również się przeliczył. Tak też, gdyby Rosjanie zrealizowali swoje plany i w trzy dni osiągnęli swoje cele, czyli obalili rząd w Kijowie, próbowaliby wymusić na Sojuszu zmianę polityki obronnej.

Problem polega na tym, że taki właśnie status Ukrainy zmienia całkowicie układ sił w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej, a może nawet w większej skali geopolitycznej. Z jednej strony Ukraina stałaby się najsilniejszym graczem politycznym w regionie, z drugiej zaś, jak obecnie Izrael, byłaby długoterminowo zależna od stałego wsparcia militarnego i politycznego USA. A przy tym formalnie niezwiązana żadnymi sojuszami wojskowymi (bo przecież nie można drażnić Rosji!), stanowiłaby w istocie rzeczy czynnik potencjalnie destabilizujący ten rejon świata.

Niektórzy komentatorzy nazywają te siły rosyjską „partią wojny”. Na koniec zostawiłem scenariusz czwarty, na który po cichu liczymy chyba wszyscy. Otóż wielka wojna może skończyć się po prostu niejako „unieważniona” przez wydarzenia polityczne największej wagi. Uliczny czy nawet pałacowy bunt, obalając dotychczasowe władze, może dać nowemu kierownictwu szansę na wyjście z twarzą bądź wręcz, jak bolszewicy po rewolucji 1917 r., na porzucenie frontu wojny przeciwko Niemcom i Austro-Węgrom. Albo jak sami Niemcy w październiku 1918, kiedy rewolta części wojska grozi ogólną rewolucją, co doprowadza do zmiany rządu na bardziej skory do niekorzystnego dla siebie zakończenia wojny. Jeżeli nie on, pozostaje nam jeszcze scenariusz trzeci, znany z wojny w Korei w 1953 r., a więc impas i demarkacja.

W niedzielę izraelska armia skupiona była na koncentrowaniu swych sił na terenach graniczących ze Strefą Gazy. Cały obszar został odcięty od dostaw energii elektrycznej, paliwa oraz wszelkich towarów. – Pomścimy ten czarny dzień – zapowiedział premier Beniamin Netanjahu już w sobotę. – Zraniony, osłabiony Izrael jest bardziej zaciekły – napisał „Times of Israel”. Im dłużej jednak wojna na Ukrainie będzie się toczyć bez rozstrzygnięcia, tym bardziej prawdopodobne jest, że dojdzie do czegoś nieoczekiwanego – po obu stronach. Kontrolowani przez Moskwę propagandyści w tysiącach artykułów wmawiali obywatelom kraju, że “Rosja chce pokoju”, a “Ukraina jest agresorem”.

Wielokrotnie rozmawiał z Putinem. Kwaśniewski podaje rok końca wojny

To niewielka wioska w obwodzie donieckim (przed wojną miała zaledwie 600 mieszkańców), ale jest ważnym punktem leżącym na drodze ukraińskiej armii do okupowanego Mariupola. Dzisiaj w Kijowie już przyznają, że za sprawą niektórych polityków ukraińskich, którzy obiecali szybki sukces i nawet odzyskanie Krymu, oczekiwania co ryzyko walutowe, ostrzeżenie do trwającej kontrofensywy były znacznie zawyżone. Fesenko podkreśla też, że wojna zakończy się wzdłuż jakiejś linii frontu „wtedy, gdy konflikt będzie się przedłużał i będzie oczywiste, że żadna ze stron nie jest w stanie zmienić sytuacji na swoją korzyść. Chyba że dojdzie do zmiany kierownictwa w USA albo w Rosji”.

Cień imperium. Co z dorobkiem Jana Kulczyka zrobiły jego dzieci?

Ten ruch ma sprawiać, że Rosjanie ponoszą na froncie ogromne straty. Ostatni zmasowany atak na wiele ukraińskich miast miał miejsce w czwartek 29 grudnia. „Czekamy na kolejne propozycje od »rozjemców«, dotyczące »traktatu pokojowego«, »gwarancji bezpieczeństwa dla Federacji Rosyjskiej« oraz niepożądanych prowokacji” – kpił Mychajło Podolak.

Tymczasem heroiczna postawa Ukraińców i samego Wołodymyra Zełenskiego zjednoczyła cały Zachód i sprawiła, że NATO jest bliskie rozszerzenia, stając się silne jak nigdy przedtem. Zanim Putin zaatakował Ukrainę, miał plany wobec NATO. Dyktator regularnie powtarzał, że zachodnia broń jest zbyt blisko granic jego państwa.

Kiedy zakończy się wojna w Ukrainie?

“Jesteśmy w panice. Dla nas to katastrofa” — powiedziała “Politico”Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, ukraińska posłanka, która przewodniczy komisji ds. Bez amerykańskiej pomocy Ukraina przegra tę wojnę. Już kilka miesięcy temu Mychajło Podolak mówił o kluczowym i wstępnym warunku do rozpoczęcia rozmów ze stroną rosyjską. – Wycofajcie się i stańcie gdzieś daleko od granicy, a wtedy zaczniemy rozmowę. Wtedy będzie to proces negocjacyjny i będziemy mogli rozmawiać, bo musimy otrzymać odszkodowanie – stwierdził Mychajło Podolak. W wyniku bestialskiej napaści Rosji na Ukrainę zburzony został dotychczasowy porządek świata.

Jak zakończy się wojna to się okaże w niedalekiej przyszłości. Bez wątpienia będzie to jeden z trzech wymienionych scenariuszy. Może on mieć odchylenia, lecz całość będzie w tych ramach.

Wojna w Ukrainie. Co z negocjacjami pokojowymi?

Pierwszy przedstawiony przez Badraka scenariusz zakłada rozejm, ale dość nietypowy. “Jeżeli Ukraina i świat pozwolą Putinowi zachować twarz w tej wojnie, to zostawi na Ukrainie jakieś wojska – mam na myśli nie tylko Krym i okupowane terytoria Donbasu, ale też np. korytarz lądowy na Krym – i zawrze rozejm” – mówi dow jones industrial average utrzymuje historyczne szczytach na służbie ekspert. Druga możliwość jest taka, że Rosjanie zajmą pozycje na okupowanych terenach. Jak mówi Badrak – wtedy ciężko będzie ich wypędzić, w związku z czym wojna będzie się przeciągać. “Wtedy wojska ukraińskie będą musiały dosłownie znokautować Rosjan. Ale jednocześnie czas zagra na korzyść Ukrainy” – uważa.

W wariancie najbardziej optymistycznym działoby się to po serii skutecznych ukraińskich ofensyw jak te, które widzimy w ostatnich miesiącach. Sięgając ponownie po historyczne przykłady, najczęściej wyobrażamy sobie, że jedna ze stron konfliktu zostaje pokonana czy osłabiona na tyle, by przyjąć warunki podyktowane przez zwycięzcę, podpisując kapitulację. Przy wszystkich różnicach podobnie zakończyła się II wojna światowa, dodając do tego podział Niemiec na strefy okupowane przez najważniejszych aliantów.

Ukraina tymczasem potrzebowałaby lat wsparcia Zachodu, aby zapewnić stabilność swojej wschodniej granicy. Trudno wyobrazić sobie, by Rosja uderzyła bardzo daleko na zachód, zważywszy na powolne postępy wokół Bachmutu i katastrofalną próbę zdobycia Wuhłedaru. Obecnie zachodni wywiad szacuje, że Rosja ponosi około 1000 ofiar dziennie.

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